Calgary Public Library

Destined for war, can America and China escape Thucydides's trap?, Graham Allison

eng

no index present

non fiction

Destined for war

dictionaries

986523912

Graham Allison

can America and China escape Thucydides's trap?

"CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES ARE HEADING TOWARD A WAR NEITHER WANTS. The reason is Thucydides's Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one. This phenomenon is as old as history itself. About the Peloponnesian War that devastated ancient Greece, the historian Thucydides explained: "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable." Over the past 500 years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times. War broke out in twelve of them. Today, as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries "great again," the seventeenth case looks grim. Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific, a trade conflict, cyberattack, or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war. In Destined for War, the eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison explains why Thucydides's Trap is the best lens for understanding U.S.-China relations in the twenty-first century. Through uncanny historical parallels and war scenarios, he shows how close we are to the unthinkable. Yet, stressing that war is not inevitable, Allison also reveals how clashing powers have kept the peace in the past -- and what painful steps the United States and China must take to avoid disaster today"--, Provided by publisher

Front Cover; Front Flap; Front Matter; Half Title; Other Books by this Author; Title; Copyright; Contents; Preface; Introduction; THUCYDIDES'S TRAP; ARE THE US AND CHINA DESTINED FOR WAR?; Part One: THE RISE OF CHINA; 1. "The Biggest Player in the History of the World"; COULD THE US BECOME NUMBER TWO?; COULD ROME BE BUILT IN TWO WEEKS?; THE STEM REVOLUTION; BIGGER BARRELS OF BIGGER GUNS; THE NEW BALANCE OF POWER; Part Two: LESSONS FROM HISTORY; 2. Athens vs. Sparta; RISE MEETS RULE; THE SPARK; WAS WAR INEVITABLE?; 3. Five Hundred Years; JAPAN VS. UNITED STATES; JAPAN VS. RUSSIA AND CHINAGERMANY VS. FRANCEENGLAND VS. DUTCH REPUBLIC; HAPSBURGS VS. FRANCE; 4. Britain vs. Germany; THE CROWE MEMORANDUM; THE END OF THE BRITISH CENTURY?; GERMANY'S "PLACE IN THE SUN"; "OUR FUTURE LIES ON THE WATER"; "MOST BULLIES, WHEN TACKLED,ARE COWARDS"; "DIVERTING THE DEADLY CURRENT"; Part Three: A GATHERING STORM; 5. Imagine China Were Just Like Us; THE SPANISH-AMERICAN WAR; ENFORCING THE MONROE DOCTRINE; THE PANAMA CANAL; ALASKA BOUNDARY DISPUTE; IMAGINING A "XI COROLLARY"; 6. What Xi's China Wants; THE WORLD ACCORDING TO CHINA; WHO IS XI JINPING?; REALIZING CHINA'S DREAM; XI'S NIGHTMAREMAKING CHINA PROUD AGAINSUSTAINING THE UNSUSTAINABLE; A MESSAGE FOR AMERICA: BUTT OUT; "FIGHT AND WIN"; 7. Clash of Civilizations; CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS; THE US AND CHINA; STRATEGIC CULTURE CLASH; CHINA SEES CHINA SEAS; 8. From Here to War; SPARKS, BACKGROUND CONDITIONS, ACCELERANTS, AND ESCALATION LADDERS; AN ACCIDENTAL COLLISION AT SEA; TAIWAN MOVES TOWARD INDEPENDENCE; WAR PROVOKED BY A THIRD PARTY; NORTH KOREAN COLLAPSE; FROM ECONOMIC CONFLICT TO MILITARY WAR; Part Four: WHY WAR IS NOT INEVITABLE; 9. Twelve Clues for Peace; SPAIN VS. PORTUGAL; GERMANY VS. BRITAIN AND FRANCEUNITED STATES VS. BRITAINSOVIET UNION VS. UNITED STATES; 10. Where Do We Go from Here?; BEGIN WITH STRUCTURAL REALITIES; APPLY HISTORY; RECOGNIZE THAT AMERICA'S POST-COLD WAR CHINA STRATEGY IS FUNDAMENTALLY A CONTRADICTION; REVIEW ALL THE STRATEGIC OPTIONS -- EVEN THE UGLY ONES; Accommodate; Undermine; Negotiate a Long Peace; Redefine the Relationship; Back Matter; Conclusion; Acknowledgments; Appendix 1: THUCYDIDES'S TRAP CASE FILE; Appendix 2: SEVEN STRAW MEN; Notes; Index; Back Flap; Back Cover; Spine